Foreclosures, Delinquencies and the Illusion of a Housing Recovery

DataAnalytics

While mortgage delinquency rates are showing signs of easing, residential foreclosures
are once again, on the rise. A  data-point worth noting, is that delinquencies did inch upward
from 7.2% in January to 7.3% in February. That key metric is certainly something to keep an eye on.

According to LPS and RealtyTrac, approximately 2.7+ million residential properties are
in some form of loan delinquency and as of February, approximately 800+ thousand
homes have been repossessed.  RealtyTrac CEO Brandon Moore said the “numbers point
to a gradually rising foreclosure tide as some of the barriers that have been holding back foreclosures are removed.”

So while defaults do seem to be declining, 1-4 family forfeitures are now increasing and
according to leading broker-dealer Amherst Securities, “some 9.5 million homes are
still at risk of default.” much to the chagrin of the real estate industry.

 

 

  • 2.7 Million mortgage delinquencies (30/60/90-day)
  • 1.41 Million distressed assets (approx. 34% of all inventory)
  • 1.6 Million Shadow assets (possibly 3+m in total)
  • 26% +/- of mortgage holders currently ‘underwater’ (negative equity)
  • 5.4+ Million total housing assets (includes claimed shadow assets)
  • 13 -/+ Month Supply of total Housing Inventory

Overall “printed” housing inventory stands at approximately 4+/- million units in the U.S.
(as the industry and its contingent of boosters do not account for or care to acknowledge the
millions in shadow inventory) with 2.43m existing homes, 1.41m distressed assets, approximately 151k new homes and at least 1.6 million of shadow inventory, that is publicly disclosed.

(estimates for total inventory are as high 7+ million units, due to the very real possibility
that
many banks – at the urging of the FHA and the Fed are not disclosing all of their distressed/shadow inventory)

Another data-point in decline, is sales of foreclosed homes, which has fallen approximately 24.3%
in the first two months of 2012 from December 2011 according to LPS. This drop off is more rough news for the already over-supplied inventory of the U.S. housing market.

So while there is a glimmer of positive data with regards to mortgage loan defaults, the pace of  forfeitures are accruing and sales of all homes, existing, new and distressed has been slowing. Unfortunately, this trend will place even further downward pressure on already overall weakened home prices.

Which in turn, has the affect of creating additional negative equity for a portion of existing mortgage holders who are not yet ‘underwater’ but are barley maintaining current mortgage payments.

Thus, increasing the likelihood of additional loan defaults as well as strategic-defaults.
Negating any exaggerated  and so-called “housing recovery.”

Analysis from all of these key metrics and data points, reveal a sobering picture for the residential real estate market. Housing, may in fact not recover for another 5 to possibly 10 years.

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FANNIE & FREDDIE SOUGHT $95 BILLION DOLLARS FROM U.S. TAX PAYERS IN 2009

Guest Post:
By Die ex-onomic Machina

The U.S. housing market continues to slide in one of the darkest abysses in the nations history. New home sales have plummeted, existing home sales posted a record low in January as well. Home prices are dropping like a rock from the sky and foreclosures are running wild. While shadow inventory is set to flood the market this year, producing a bigger glut of unsold homes, which will drive sale price and volume even lower.

Now Fannie Mae, the largest mortgage provider in the U.S. has reported enormous losses topping $74 Billion Dollars for 2009.  Earlier in the week, Freddie Mac posted a $21.6 billion loss for 2009. Combined, that is a MASSIVE $95 BILLION DOLLARS lost from both government sponsored institutions. $95 Billion in tax payer  monies WASTED and SQUANDERED by corrupt, thieving politicians and suits running these two fraudulent entities.

Fannie Mae spokesperson said they will seek an ADDITIONAL $15.3 Billion in additional funds from the U.S. government this year. The firm has already received $59.9 billion in aid from the so-called stimulus. When you total the amount of tax payer money GIVEN to both publicly funded institutions, it is a STAGGERING $170 BILLION DOLLARS. That’s $170 Billion STOLEN from the American tax payers by Fannie and Freddie alone. How about the Billions more given to all the BANKS who have also stolen tax payer money- via TARP and stimulus? The auto makers? And other many various companies and entities as well.

How many BILLIONS upon BILLIONS are we, the American Tax Payers in debited for? How much more are we going stand for? How much longer before the public stops voting for these same CRIMINALS in BOTH parties- who KEEP stealing OUR money and LYING to us. Where is the conservative movement, at a time when America truly needs it?

The corruption and financial problems with Freddie and Fannie are just the tip of the iceberg. Isn’t it interesting that NO ONE in the socialist mainstream media has done any type of investigative reporting on the suicide of Freddie chief financial officer David B. Kellermann, in April of 2009. Why is that? The cover up behind the real story must be mind blowing. The layers and layers of corruption that are waiting to be uncovered must be staggering. But, has anyone in the Obama run media bothered to vet out the real story? No. Instead, the State-run media falls inline and follows orders, the new order from comrade change and his socialist minions.

Barney Frank, Chris Dodd and host of other criminal executives and politicians are so deeply embedded in corruption with these two institutions and yet no one seems to care. When will be the time to care? Will it be after the left-leaning U.S. government installs State-Run Health Care? Will it be when the jobless rate reaches 20%? Again, where is the conservative movement at a time when America truly needs it.

What happened to the American values of hard work and self-sustainability? What happened to the America from the 1940′s through the 1950′s? A time when our country was at its BEST, with a strong, proud work ethic, solid family values and the staunch will to further democracy? It seems to be gone for now, taken away by the dangerous progressive liberal socialists, the minority groups of the very, very wealthy, the very poor, the corrupt unions, and all of the special interest groups who DO NOT represent the majority of America. -Taken by the brain-washed who believe that a platform of European styled Socialism is the right path for our Nation. Tragically, they are hugely and deadly mistaken.

Retail in Ruin

Guest Post:
By Die ex-onomic Machina

National Retail Market

U.S. Retail sales for October is said to have risen 1.4%, a slight increase from September’s 2.3% decline. Month over month the reality is only a modest if not negligible 0.9%. Let’s not overlook the fact that these numbers always get revised and more than likely, the 1.4% increase will be revised downward next month.

0.9% is virtually nothing, in fact it is flat for all intents and purposes. But the government and the banks, who’s puppet economists- all in the play, would have the public believing different. Theater of the absurd, now on tour across the nation with special performances in Washington, only this week seemed to ‘get’ that at the crux of the massive economic recession, is JOBS.

The labor market, is not, as pontificated by some, a lagging indicator. When unemployment reaches double digits and more importantly, there are no new jobs being created, unemployment becomes a coincident and in the nations current situation, even a leading indicator of the economy. Unemployment will most likely reach 12% or more in 2010 as the recession is predicted to continue for at least another year.

Retail businesses are continuing to falter and close at an alarming rate. Third Quarter overall retail space vacancy was 7.6%, up almost 2% from Q2. Strip malls alone have a running vacancy rate of nearly 12%. The colossal ramping up of pre-holiday sales from major retailers Walmart, Target and Kmart/Sears is a clear indicator of just how troubled the economy and these companies truly are.

Regional News

Here in the Garden State, by the Third Quarter retail vacancies rose to 8.2% and now stands at over 10%. As of October 31, as reported by NJ Biz, another 14 single store businesses had closed their doors for good.  Add to that, Ohio based InkStop, who had 9 stores operating in New Jersey, until October 1st. Initially, the company announced a “temporary” closing, to shore up financial debts and reorganize the chain. But on November 10th it was an entirely different story.

“As of November 10th, InkStop has filed for Chapter 7 Bankruptcy.” This according to the board of directors. The company owes $48 million to more than a 1,000 creditors. A company spokesman stated that the debt is too large to recover from and there would be no way to reopen and will instead liquidate its assets and close for good.

On top of the vacancy problems nationally and in New Jersey, are the mounting loan defaults for commercial real estate. Currently $3.6 BILLION dollars worth of commercial mortgages are distressed in NJ and that number is predicted to reach $7.4 BILLION by 2011- according to Foresight Analytics.

InkStop’s closings are just another dreadful sign that retail and the economy continues to spiral downward and significantly suffer, despite the propaganda still coming from the government. There are many questions to be answered, but the single most important is not health care or climate change issues, It is employment issues. The restoration and creation of jobs.

Nothing except jobs will lead an economic recovery, NOT housing, stock/bond markets, not retail. Why? Because in order for consumers to SPEND money, they first have to EARN money. A concept that even a first grader can grasp- except for this leftist administration, a concept they have yet to understand.

One has to wonder what this mock administration has been doing for the last 10 months, except placating to dictators around the world. One also has to wonder if their goal is not to cripple the U.S. economy in an effort to take complete control through government intervention. If there were a complete collapse of the financial sector, they could move to seize all and every business in the nation.

Make no mistake, there is another bubble being created, a monetary bubble that has been growing by TARP, Stimulus and other borrowed tax payer dollars. The banks are borrowing money they can’t repay, the government is borrowing against future generations that is set to collapse the U.S.- unless something is done to stop and reverse the apparent move towards a centrally planned economy.