Consumer Inflation (Food & Fuel)

By DataAnalytics

A brief report on the latest purported inflation figures.

As if under some giant slumber, the ‘public’ was given the standard
rhetorical tripe on monthly inflation figures today from the BLS.

Amazingly, CPI-U barley rose a half a percent, in fact it ‘printed’ at
0.4%! Now considering more than half the population are most likely
‘asleep at the wheel’ this report deserves a double-take, even from the
most inept, reality-TV, stupor-induced American.

If you buy groceries and drive a vehicle, you must realize
(at least we hope so) that it is costing you much, much more to
feed you and your family and fill up the old gas tank.

How much more? Well for gasoline, the national average per gallon
is now at $3.83, up from $3.54 a year ago. That’s an 8.1% Rise.
How about from last month? Prices from February are up a hefty 12%.
But yet, the BLS proclaims that the ‘official’ measure of inflation has
only risen 0.4%. How can that be? Simple, one word. Deception.

gas price chart

How about food prices? Well let’s take a closer look at the cost of food
commodities from January 2012 back to January 2011. Meat, Poultry,
Fish and eggs are up on a weighted basis of 7.21% from a year ago.
Dairy and related dairy (cheeses, yogurts, etc) have increased 9% since
last year, while Cereal and Bakery products are up 5.25% from January ’11.

cereal meat eggs

Can’t live without that morning cup of home brewed Coffee? (me neither)
Well, roasted coffee prices have soared a whopping 16.85% from January 2011.
The only ‘good’ news, is that Fruits and Vegetables have actually
dropped about a half a percent, 06% to be exact.

coffee & veg

So while the government and B-B-B- Benny and Fed tout virtually no
to little inflation, there are some of us, who understand that this simply
is NOT true. The government is playing a game, a dangerous game at that.
Manipulating, doctoring and fabricating numbers and figures in order to
‘show’ that Central Bank intervention is working. (which we know is a failure)

The BLS has truly become a Ministry of Propaganda for the government.
No longer an agency of credibility and non-partisan reporting. Engaged
in a campaign of utter and sheer deceit on jobs data and inflation.
Making a mockery of the Statistical arm of academics and public trust.

Gasoline Prices Soaring Again

By DataAnalytics

Monthly Gasoline prices SPIKE one more time.

Now $3.65 per gallon (2/24). THAT’S THREE DOLLARS SIXTY FIVE CENTS.
Up $0.08 cents within the week. So far gas has RISEN from $3.23 to $3.65
per gallon just since January.

(2/20)
The average pump price of regular gasoline in the U.S. has
now risen to $3.57
from a month ago at $3.385 p/gal., and
up from $3.171 p/gal., just a year ago. A hefty 12.6% rise.

Price Chart
Here is what the main stream media, the Street and the
department of energy are reporting:

Both Brent and WTI are trading well above $100 per Barrel.

WTI   Brent

The burning question is why.

Here are the corporate owned media ‘talking-points’:

  • Geo-political tensions
  • Possibility of supply interruptions
  • Decreased crude supply from Nigeria and Libya.
  • Decreased capacity from Cushing/Midwestern refinery’s
  • Higher demand from India & China

Nigerian production

 

In turn, this is what investment firms and traders use as
a so-called “inflection point” or “trigger” to artificially drive
prices up, of both crude oil and retail gasoline.

However, here are a number of facts uncovered by DataAnalytics.

Most of the previously lost Libyan production is back to
750-800K/per day.

Nigerian production of approx., 2 mb/per day has been relatively
stable for the past 15 months.

The supposed Geo-political issues in the middle east have been
on-going for the past 40+ years. This is nothing new.

The prospect of supply being disrupted is slight.

U.S. Gasoline demand is at its lowest in 17 years.

E.U. Gasoline demand lowest in a decade

  • The level of supply is elevated
  • The level of demand has decreased

Gasoline supply has increased 9.7% from January.
Refinery utilization has declined from 85.6% to 84%
per day or only 0.4% which equates to -218K per day.
(this is basically a negligible amount)

Other than geo-political rhetoric and wild, unregulated
speculation, the mostly normal and broadly acceptable model
of demand and supply, based on consumption, appears to have
no place in the current price  ‘controls’ established by Wall Street,
OPEC and supposed government regulations.

The fact is that the current and wild speculation is unfounded
and is in the process of creating a gasoline bubble. Just last week,
traders bought 90 million barrels of futures contracts for themselves.

A major consequence of course is increased consumer inflation
and the further erosion of discretionary income and spending.

The most perilous potential result could be a Double-Dip Recession.
The bottom line is that the average consumer will suffer the
most, while only a very select will benefit and benefit enormously.

When supply is up and demand is down, but prices keep rising,
it does not take a PhD to figure out the causation. Which is
neither one of a geo-political, mechanical or physical supply issue.
In short, it is simply the underlying ambition of unreasonable profit,
by baseless speculation, at the great expense of the consuming public.

We are working on a more in-depth story regarding crude oil
and gasoline commodities. Stay tuned.

Gasoline Prices

By DataAnalytics

UPDATED Post:
February 14, 2012

The mean price per gallon for regular gasoline in the U.S. is now $3.51.
Up 12.5% from one year ago, when prices averaged $3.12 per gallon.
Just a month ago, regular was averaging $3.44 p/gal.
This continual rapid rise is cause for alarm and concern as unemployment
is increasing and the economy is falling deeper towards a double-dip recession.

Feb. 2, 2012
Here’s a quick update on U.S. Fuel Commodity Inflation, part of the
necessary and reoccurring household consuming expenditures.

Unless you have been inducted into the witness protection program or
hiding out in a remote secluded cabin…you know that gas prices at the
pump have been (recently) steadily rising since late November.

 

U.S. Gasoline Chart

 

In the week ending January 31st, the national average for regular
gasoline was $3.439 per gallon. Up from $3.101 p/g one year ago.
That’s a 10.89% increase and a 4.5% rise just in the month of January.

Gas Prices

 

The immediate question is; why? Well of course the most simplistic
and obvious answer would be supply and demand, right? Absolutely,
that would be the correct answer- except that demand for pump gasoline
has been dropping for about the past 3 months.

Demand for pump gasoline during most of 2011 had been approximately
370-million gallons per day, but over the last few months that rate has
fallen to about an average of 340-million gallons per day.

Meanwhile on the supply side, gasoline inventory has increased for the
third straight week, attaining the highest level since March of 2011.
And, with the stockpile of fuel, refinery utilization rate is down by 1.9%.

Typically, U.S. gasoline consumption has historically trended in-step with
employment and with Unemployment at unprecedented highs, the drop-off
in aggregate demand is really no surprise at all.

So the evidence reveals that demand has and continues to decrease, yet
prices at the pump keep rising. Given these two facts, we can surmise that
it is not the result of a Cost-Push trigger whatsoever.

There are many reasons for the jump in crude (both Brent and WTI)
which directly affect retail pump gasoline. DataAnalytics is working
on a story explaining those reasons, which we will publish in the coming months.

The bottom line here is, that the average driving/commuting consumer
is paying approximately 12% more for gasoline than this time last year.
Couple that sizable 15%-20% increase with inflated cost of staple foods
and the grim pressures of affordability to the average American household continue to mount.


The Iron Pump