Housing Snapshot

By DataAnalytics

Admits the arm-waving and ramped up rhetoric being shouted by the msm/real estate/banking and finance industry, we would like to remind the stuffed-suits that housing is not improving, not recovering and will remain depressed for a long time to come.

Out of approximately 45 Million residential mortgage holders in the U.S. there are roughly 18 Million outstanding mortgages that are in negative equity territory. Previously, it was thought and published that there were 12 Million underwater mortgages, but as it happens, the two main firms who collect that data were incorrect. Turns out, that nearly 40% of all outstanding residential mortgages are actually  ‘underwater’

Counting all housing inventory; existing, new and both disclosed and undisclosed shadow assets (to the best of independent analysis), there is approximately 7.5-/+ Million homes available. That equates to a total absorption rate of approximately 24 months and that figure could be as high as
60 months

Housing is still unaffordable, despite the fact that overall, prices have fallen about 35%. In order for median prices to be on par with median incomes in the U.S. the median house price needs to be at approximately $144,000. Currently, the median price is about $164,000, which is +12% or +$20,000
too high. Forget affordability, forget the ‘talking-points’ that the real estate and banking industry perpetrate, they are grossly incorrect and deceptive.

The FACT is, that there is little to no borrowing and purchasing power.
One of the main causes is due to the extremely high unemployment rate of approximately 12% (U3). While the total underemployment/unemployment (U6) is about 23%. Wages are flat, credit risk remains elevated and household debt is increasing. The debt-to-income ratios for the majority of would-be buyers is above 35%- which places many potential mortgage borrowers at a high risk of defaulting.

The facts are indisputable, even though the real estate and banking muppets claim otherwise. Of course, all of their arm-chair analysis is predicated upon a paper foundation that crumbles under the weight of truth. Truth will always trump lies and deception, eventually the truth gets out. The truth triumphs.

The main take-aways here to remember: Diminished Borrowing/Purchasing Power AND Years worth of Inventory. An equation that nets very little market absorption. Plus, a myriad of ancillary factors; Including, but not limited to massive unemployment, elevated levels of household debt and
an eroding economy.

Foreclosures, Delinquencies and the Illusion of a Housing Recovery

DataAnalytics

While mortgage delinquency rates are showing signs of easing, residential foreclosures
are once again, on the rise. A  data-point worth noting, is that delinquencies did inch upward
from 7.2% in January to 7.3% in February. That key metric is certainly something to keep an eye on.

According to LPS and RealtyTrac, approximately 2.7+ million residential properties are
in some form of loan delinquency and as of February, approximately 800+ thousand
homes have been repossessed.  RealtyTrac CEO Brandon Moore said the “numbers point
to a gradually rising foreclosure tide as some of the barriers that have been holding back foreclosures are removed.”

So while defaults do seem to be declining, 1-4 family forfeitures are now increasing and
according to leading broker-dealer Amherst Securities, “some 9.5 million homes are
still at risk of default.” much to the chagrin of the real estate industry.

 

 

  • 2.7 Million mortgage delinquencies (30/60/90-day)
  • 1.41 Million distressed assets (approx. 34% of all inventory)
  • 1.6 Million Shadow assets (possibly 3+m in total)
  • 26% +/- of mortgage holders currently ‘underwater’ (negative equity)
  • 5.4+ Million total housing assets (includes claimed shadow assets)
  • 13 -/+ Month Supply of total Housing Inventory

Overall “printed” housing inventory stands at approximately 4+/- million units in the U.S.
(as the industry and its contingent of boosters do not account for or care to acknowledge the
millions in shadow inventory) with 2.43m existing homes, 1.41m distressed assets, approximately 151k new homes and at least 1.6 million of shadow inventory, that is publicly disclosed.

(estimates for total inventory are as high 7+ million units, due to the very real possibility
that
many banks – at the urging of the FHA and the Fed are not disclosing all of their distressed/shadow inventory)

Another data-point in decline, is sales of foreclosed homes, which has fallen approximately 24.3%
in the first two months of 2012 from December 2011 according to LPS. This drop off is more rough news for the already over-supplied inventory of the U.S. housing market.

So while there is a glimmer of positive data with regards to mortgage loan defaults, the pace of  forfeitures are accruing and sales of all homes, existing, new and distressed has been slowing. Unfortunately, this trend will place even further downward pressure on already overall weakened home prices.

Which in turn, has the affect of creating additional negative equity for a portion of existing mortgage holders who are not yet ‘underwater’ but are barley maintaining current mortgage payments.

Thus, increasing the likelihood of additional loan defaults as well as strategic-defaults.
Negating any exaggerated  and so-called “housing recovery.”

Analysis from all of these key metrics and data points, reveal a sobering picture for the residential real estate market. Housing, may in fact not recover for another 5 to possibly 10 years.

A Planned Economy for the 1%

From   on Feb 25, 2012

Michael Hudson: All economies have a certain amount of planning,
the question is, for whom?

 

The Correlation Between Economics and Individual Liberty (via Carmen Alexe’s Blog)

The Correlation Between Economics and Individual Liberty Turning Hard Times into Good Times Economics is not a science in the same way chemistry and physics are sciences.  Or, if it is, it’s a pseudo-science  having more in common with psychology than geology.  In his classic book Human Action economist Ludwig Von Mises demonstrates how economics is the study of human action.  Human action is sometimes rational, sometimes irrational, sometimes predictable, and sometimes unpredictable.  In short economi … Read More

via Carmen Alexe’s Blog

FANNIE & FREDDIE SOUGHT $95 BILLION DOLLARS FROM U.S. TAX PAYERS IN 2009

Guest Post:
By Die ex-onomic Machina

The U.S. housing market continues to slide in one of the darkest abysses in the nations history. New home sales have plummeted, existing home sales posted a record low in January as well. Home prices are dropping like a rock from the sky and foreclosures are running wild. While shadow inventory is set to flood the market this year, producing a bigger glut of unsold homes, which will drive sale price and volume even lower.

Now Fannie Mae, the largest mortgage provider in the U.S. has reported enormous losses topping $74 Billion Dollars for 2009.  Earlier in the week, Freddie Mac posted a $21.6 billion loss for 2009. Combined, that is a MASSIVE $95 BILLION DOLLARS lost from both government sponsored institutions. $95 Billion in tax payer  monies WASTED and SQUANDERED by corrupt, thieving politicians and suits running these two fraudulent entities.

Fannie Mae spokesperson said they will seek an ADDITIONAL $15.3 Billion in additional funds from the U.S. government this year. The firm has already received $59.9 billion in aid from the so-called stimulus. When you total the amount of tax payer money GIVEN to both publicly funded institutions, it is a STAGGERING $170 BILLION DOLLARS. That’s $170 Billion STOLEN from the American tax payers by Fannie and Freddie alone. How about the Billions more given to all the BANKS who have also stolen tax payer money- via TARP and stimulus? The auto makers? And other many various companies and entities as well.

How many BILLIONS upon BILLIONS are we, the American Tax Payers in debited for? How much more are we going stand for? How much longer before the public stops voting for these same CRIMINALS in BOTH parties- who KEEP stealing OUR money and LYING to us. Where is the conservative movement, at a time when America truly needs it?

The corruption and financial problems with Freddie and Fannie are just the tip of the iceberg. Isn’t it interesting that NO ONE in the socialist mainstream media has done any type of investigative reporting on the suicide of Freddie chief financial officer David B. Kellermann, in April of 2009. Why is that? The cover up behind the real story must be mind blowing. The layers and layers of corruption that are waiting to be uncovered must be staggering. But, has anyone in the Obama run media bothered to vet out the real story? No. Instead, the State-run media falls inline and follows orders, the new order from comrade change and his socialist minions.

Barney Frank, Chris Dodd and host of other criminal executives and politicians are so deeply embedded in corruption with these two institutions and yet no one seems to care. When will be the time to care? Will it be after the left-leaning U.S. government installs State-Run Health Care? Will it be when the jobless rate reaches 20%? Again, where is the conservative movement at a time when America truly needs it.

What happened to the American values of hard work and self-sustainability? What happened to the America from the 1940′s through the 1950′s? A time when our country was at its BEST, with a strong, proud work ethic, solid family values and the staunch will to further democracy? It seems to be gone for now, taken away by the dangerous progressive liberal socialists, the minority groups of the very, very wealthy, the very poor, the corrupt unions, and all of the special interest groups who DO NOT represent the majority of America. -Taken by the brain-washed who believe that a platform of European styled Socialism is the right path for our Nation. Tragically, they are hugely and deadly mistaken.