Consumer Inflation (Food & Fuel)

By DataAnalytics

A brief report on the latest purported inflation figures.

As if under some giant slumber, the ‘public’ was given the standard
rhetorical tripe on monthly inflation figures today from the BLS.

Amazingly, CPI-U barley rose a half a percent, in fact it ‘printed’ at
0.4%! Now considering more than half the population are most likely
‘asleep at the wheel’ this report deserves a double-take, even from the
most inept, reality-TV, stupor-induced American.

If you buy groceries and drive a vehicle, you must realize
(at least we hope so) that it is costing you much, much more to
feed you and your family and fill up the old gas tank.

How much more? Well for gasoline, the national average per gallon
is now at $3.83, up from $3.54 a year ago. That’s an 8.1% Rise.
How about from last month? Prices from February are up a hefty 12%.
But yet, the BLS proclaims that the ‘official’ measure of inflation has
only risen 0.4%. How can that be? Simple, one word. Deception.

gas price chart

How about food prices? Well let’s take a closer look at the cost of food
commodities from January 2012 back to January 2011. Meat, Poultry,
Fish and eggs are up on a weighted basis of 7.21% from a year ago.
Dairy and related dairy (cheeses, yogurts, etc) have increased 9% since
last year, while Cereal and Bakery products are up 5.25% from January ’11.

cereal meat eggs

Can’t live without that morning cup of home brewed Coffee? (me neither)
Well, roasted coffee prices have soared a whopping 16.85% from January 2011.
The only ‘good’ news, is that Fruits and Vegetables have actually
dropped about a half a percent, 06% to be exact.

coffee & veg

So while the government and B-B-B- Benny and Fed tout virtually no
to little inflation, there are some of us, who understand that this simply
is NOT true. The government is playing a game, a dangerous game at that.
Manipulating, doctoring and fabricating numbers and figures in order to
‘show’ that Central Bank intervention is working. (which we know is a failure)

The BLS has truly become a Ministry of Propaganda for the government.
No longer an agency of credibility and non-partisan reporting. Engaged
in a campaign of utter and sheer deceit on jobs data and inflation.
Making a mockery of the Statistical arm of academics and public trust.

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The Engineered Market and the Doctored Unemployment Rate

Friday, March 2nd, 2012

Short interview with Mark Leibovit of VRGoldletter.com, who speaks with
NBR’s Tom Hudson about the Fed’s manipulations, the engineered stock
market and the Doctored Unemployment Rate.

Video segment is from NBR with Tom Hudson. Full Transcript.

 

 

” My sense is not as optimistic. I don’t believe the figures
that we’ve been getting from the government.”

“There’s a lot of talk about the employment numbers, we know those
have been doctored up…”

Preliminary February Unemployment Rate

By DataAnalytics

U3 rate jumps back up to 9%

Gallup’s latest report suggests the BLS will “likely report on the first
Friday of March that its seasonally adjusted unemployment
rate increased in February.”

Gallup Chart

Gallup’s mid-month unemployment rate analysis is a preliminary
estimate of the BLS government report. Data now suggests that the
Bureau of Labor Statistics will likely report on March 2nd that its
“Seasonally Adjusted” U3 unemployment rate will indeed actually
INCREASE 
in February.

Meanwhile, the U6 rate (underemployment/unemployment) has also
spiked up to 19%, from the purported S.A. 15.7%  rate. The take away
here is that the labor market is worsening as we have suggested.

The non-seasonally adjusted data can be a more effective gauge of
the labor markets overall health. That, and the “Mean Duration” of
unemployment, which is near 41 weeks, accompanied by the all
alarming statistic of 43% of those who are unemployed are in that
Long-Term Unemployment category.

Labor Force Participation Rate is the key to deciphering and analyzing
the realistic unemployment rates. From approximately 2000 to 2009,
the LFPR had been about 67% +/-. But in the past 2+ years the LFPR
has been falling and now stands at approximately 64%+/-.

The reality is that the true total underemployment/unemployment
rate could be as high as 36%. Though it is difficult to pin down exact
numbers without having access to payroll income tax data.

But it is safe to state, that the total unemployment rate is roughly
between 25% and 36%. That is One Quarter to One Third of ALL
available would-be workers out of full-time work or out of work all together.

What this latest batch of data suggests, proves, is that the false claims
and bell-ringing of an economic recovery are worthless. The “Hopium”
that is being passed around in the “progressive pipe” has burned a hole
in the brains of those who are buying-in to the massive propaganda
war being waged by the government and the corporate owned media.

The economy is tanking day by day. All of the meaningful economic
indicators are either flat or negative. We have gone over them time and
time again in the last year, but it doesn’t seem to sink in.

Real Retail Sales were 0.0% in December. Preliminary figures
for January were 0.4%,  which will be revised downward again.
Most big name retailers are in serious trouble.

Profit margins in 2011 were down for almost every major retailer.
Many are now in bankruptcy, due to the massive price slashing
efforts in order to gain the foot traffic in the last quarter of 2011.

Auto sales were misleading as well, as the bulk of orders were not
for customers, but rather dealership inventories.

Crude oil and gasoline are spiraling out of control and have seen
double-digit percentage increases over last year at this time. These
rising fuel commodities show no signs of slowing down or reducing
which is further jeopardizing the economy.

Food prices are up and slightly rising as well and are expected to
remain at elevated levels in 2012. Another cold harsh reality is that
Food & Fuel inflation is up approximately 30%+/- from a year ago.

Housing market remains depressed with median prices still falling,
due in part to the huge inventory of distressed properties. With more
foreclosures due to hit the market all throughout 2012, prices will
continue to slide. This will negatively affect existing homes and
mortgage holders who are already underwater.

Debt, both personal and corporate were up in 2011 and will not
abate anytime soon.

GDP for Q4 2011, was 2.8%. Now, strip out the stockpiled inventories
which accounted for 1.9%, then remove autos, 0.6% and ta-da!
Q4 GDP was a Whopping 0.3%! Zero point three of a percent.

There you have it, 5 major indicators of economic activity are flat to
negative and are nowhere near improving because of one simple word:
Jobs. The labor market is the crux of our economic engine, period.

It’s not the stock market or any other insignificant indicator the media
and shill economists tout. Without sufficient labor levels and wages, the
all important Purchasing Power is diminished or completely eliminated.
Which tends to halt almost all economic activity (except necessities)
in our +/-67 percent  “consumption-driven” economy.
(is the light bulb coming on yet?)

The Shadow Knows…(Housing 2012)

By DataAnalytics

2012 Housing Market observations:

»Update to original post

Confirmed Data-

•Twelve Million Mortgage Holders are now Underwater (Avg of -59K neg equity)
•Mortgage Delinquencies are rising (+60-day/FHA and Conventional)

•Foreclosures are accumulating (REO and pending)
•Shadow Inventory remains elevated (disclosed & undisclosed)
•Underemployment/Unemployment is stuck at 11+% (U3)
•Wages and salaries are stagnant (which lowers purchasing power)
•Food & Fuel Inflation remains elevated over 2010 levels

Probable Data-

•Mortgage delinquencies will likely increase
•Overall housing inventory will likely increase
•Unemployment will remain in double-digit territory
•Real GDP will remain below 3% through Q3 of 2012
•Public and Private Debt is increasing
•Food & Fuel Inflation will remain high and may increase

As 2012 rang in, there were the so-called experts weighing in on the
Housing Market and their predictions for the new year. Most are choosing
to stand on the side of a declared price-bottom.

»The Fed’s January report stated that 12 million mortgages are
now underwater to the tune of an average –$59,000 negative per loan.
Adding to the already existing $700 Billion in negative home equity.

»So as distressed inventories keep increasing, prices will continue to fall.
Which means, these already negative equity mortgage holders will be
losing even more value in their homes. You can be certain that a portion of
these mortgage holders will be walking-away from their sinking ships…

DataAnalytcis, contrary to main stream prediction, is standing
across the proverbial street, and stating that most of 2012 will
not be the year of a price bottom. Perhaps their might be a start
to a trending uptick beginning in Q4, but only perhaps.

But with at least 1.6 Million units of shadow housing inventory
lurking- (mind you this is ONLY what is being disclosed and reported,
as it is widely believed that there could be upwards of double that figure)
on top of the 2.6 Million of existing units, (nar data is always suspect)
plus 160k of new homes and the approximately 1.5 Million units of
already foreclosed properties and clearly inventory levels are not subsiding.

total housing inventory 07-11

The glut of approximately 5 Million to 6 Million total housing units with
a very likely probability of more distressed properties hitting the market
will keep pushing prices downward. Couple the massive inventory problem
with what is basically flat to little demand AND then add in the major issue of
unemployment to the housing depression mix for a real witches brew…

Fact: 39% of loans in foreclosure have not made a payment in two years,
and 72% have not made a payment in over one year.

• 2.36 million loans over 60 days delinquent.
• 1.84 million loans 90+ days delinquent.
• 2.17 million loans in foreclosure process.

For a grand total of 6.37 million loans delinquent or in foreclosure 
as of September of 2011.

One aspect that is tethered to the unprecedented 22%-23%
underemployment/unemployment rate in the U.S.- is, the
pending 2012 presidential elections.

What do we know about all financial and economic markets? Easy.
Markets like stability, (for the most part) markets thrive in predictable
and certain parameters.

This includes the labor market and the housing market.
DataAnalytics thinks that one of the issues preventing the labor
markets from recovering, is the unpredictability and uncertainty
of the political landscape.

When a market and its manipulators know or have a very good idea of
who is calling the shots, it tends to be more or less predictable.
Fact: Companies are not adding enough jobs to lower the unemployment rate.

underemployment/unemployment rates

While there are various reasons for this; such as the increased costs of
employer-provided health benefits, along with the uncertainty of tax policy,
results in a reluctance to increase hiring or begin to hire. Which can be pinned
down to the current and often unpredictable administration currently in the White House.

But come November 2012, the markets will have a clearer path to its destination;
Whoever secures the White House in 2012, be it the DNC or GOP, the markets
will know what to fairly expect. Although, if this current and ineffective administration
retains the Presidency, the labor market will probably be very slow to improve if at all.
With other major and investment markets following suit.

Market surety is one of the keys to growth in our mixed-market free economy.
Replace abnormal market volatility with some sort of actual cohesion and
the indicators will begin to show signs of Real improvement.

The main issue facing our economy will be the implementation of said
cohesive force- that will enable hiring within the job market. Sounds
easy, right? Well as with almost everything, the delta between theory
and practicality remains vast. Philosophically, Socially and Politically,
those differences are just a few of the stumbling blocks on the road to recovery.

Sinking

Collecting credible data is always challenge in this 24-7, online world.
With the enormous amount of data available, scattered widely
across the many spectrum’s of information, an independent researchers
job to mine reliable data is more difficult than ever.

Information and data collected and then disseminated by the government and
in-house organizations (such as the nar, BLS, nhba, Commerce Dept., etc.,)
usually results in biased and inaccurate reports.

DataAnalytics, an independent resource, always attempts to collect and verify
data then report all discovered information without bias.

Partial data in this report was collected from LPS, CoreLogic and RPX data.

Jobless Rate is at 11.4%

VIA ZEROHEDGE

“One does not need to be a rocket scientist to grasp the fudging the BLS has been
doing every month for years now in order to bring the unemployment rate lower:
the BLS constantly lowers the labor force participation rate as more and
more people “drop out” of the labor force for one reason or another.”

“While there is some floating speculation that this is due to early retirement,
this is completely counter-factual when one also considers the overall rise
in the general civilian non institutional population.”

“In order to back out this fudge we are redoing an analysis we did first back in
August 2010, which shows what the real unemployment rate would be using
the real labor force participation rate.”

Read More about it from Tyler Durden

The Long-Term Unemployed – Demise of the Middle-Class

By DataAnalytics

While Congress and the most disappointing administration in decades praised their own
efforts and actions in seemingly lowering the U3 unemployment rate last Friday,
from a supposed 9% to a reported 8.6%, they ignored many negative glaring facts.

Indeed, the Private Sector added 120k net jobs, (revised down to 100k) but
-315 thousand workers gave up searching for jobs altogether, which is why the U3 rate dropped.
The U.S. is averaging approximately -350k first-time unemployment claims per week.
While only averaging about 125k jobs added per month. It takes at least 100k per month
just to keep the rate steady and a minimum of 200k per month to lower the UE rate.

Now on to the more disturbing and eye-opening statistics-
Long-Term Unemployment. The mean (or the average for those not familiar)
duration of unemployment in November 2010 was 34 weeks.
The mean duration of unemployment in November 2011 WAS a whopping 41 weeks.
A very sharp and alarming  increase of +7.1%.

Historically, the delta between the U3 and U6 rates has been approximately 3.9%. The spread has been up over 5% now. Another alarming data point is that 43% of all jobless persons are now the Long-Term unemployed. The U.S. is closing in on nearly half of the unemployed being out of work for a minimum of 27 weeks all the way up to 260 weeks.

Up until mid-year, the duration had been hovering in the 30 to 35 week range,
but has now made a significant jump since late 2010. What does that data reveal?
For one thing, unemployment is not easing or subsiding at all. In fact, it is worsening.

The BLS is simply deceiving the American public. The labor market is in
serious trouble and no one is tackling the problem head on. A lot of rhetoric and finger-pointing
from politicians, but no action. As the duration of the long-term unemployed keeps climbing,
so does the desperation and the continuing erosion of the middle-class.

Another interesting point to note is that the BLS changed the long-term
metric from 24 months or 100 weeks to 60 months or 260 weeks.

The take away here is that more and more workers are going without a job
for longer and longer periods of time. The negative results will be felt as purchasing power is reduced further and further. And, as household/consumer inflation keeps rising, the value of a dollar will keep sinking.

Our prediction is for a continuation of a depressed economy, more foreclosures
and higher commodity prices well into 2012. As it is, foodbanks and food pantry’s
are stretched to their limits. There are approximately 43 million people receiving food
stamps and 16 Million children in America living in poverty. Very sad and shameful indeed for
one of the most wealthiest nations in the free-world.

Gas Paradox: Falling Demand, Rising Prices (via WSJ)

U.S. gasoline demand has dropped to a 12-year low, yet consumers are paying the highest-ever prices for this time of year. The reason: Rising global oil prices are in the driver’s seat.

The paradox isn’t limited to the gasoline pump. Home-heating oil users will see record-high bills, despite using less fuel, according to an Energy Information Administration forecast.

Diesel fuel prices are up 25% from a year earlier at record November levels, fueled by a powerful one-two punch of surging demand both in the U.S. and abroad, the EIA and analysts added.

Prices for gasoline, diesel and heating oil are determined by global demand and worldwide crude prices. That notion is sometimes lost, with the emphasis misplaced on the U.S. benchmark.

Read More Here