Forward

By DataAnalytics

“Forward”
Merriam-Webster’s Definition of FORWARD:

1a : near, being at, or belonging to the forepart b : situated in advance

2a : strongly inclined : ready b : lacking modesty or reserve : brash

3: notably advanced or developed : precocious

4: moving, tending, or leading toward a position in front; also : moving toward an opponent’s goal

5a : advocating an advanced policy in the direction of what is considered progress b : extreme, radical

6: of, relating to, or getting ready for the future <forward buying of produce>
— for·ward·ly adverb
— for·ward·ness noun

Looking closely at definition number 5a, its meaning becomes particular interesting in certain contexts and uses of the word- Forward.

For example one could easily sight the apparent radical financial actions of the U.S. government
and its agencies over the past 12 to 13 years that had been steadily gaining momentum and now, rapidly accelerating during this particular administration.

As well as the extreme ideologies of both the republican and democratic parties, which has manifested itself in the form of massive and unchecked corporate pandering and financial welfare being handed out to large investment banks, large corporations, along with the continuing erosion of personal freedoms of the American citizen. As they had (the U.S. government) stated, their goal was to “fundamentally transform America” and indeed, seem to have succeeded.

Definition 6, states; -get ready for the future, and in the case of the U.S. economy and the
immediate and mid-term future, it speaks more to the ‘get ready’ verbiage described. What it
does imply, is that the majority of United States citizens should be ‘getting ready’ for a future of a depressed economy, enormous fiscal/capital debt and monetary inflation, that well may last for a decade or possibly longer.

Now that we have established the various definitions of Forward, let’s examine the roots of the slogan “Forward” as a bureaucratic advertising catch-phrase.

The use of the word in the political realm is nothing new. In fact it dates back to the late 1800’s in the former Social Democratic Party of Germany. (which was an early Marxist-Based party platform)

Forward, or the German version, Vorwärts! Was a  daily newspaper published originally in Leipzig from 1876 to 1878 and then again in Berlin from 1891 to 1933. Vorwärts! was the voice of the European Marxist-Socialist movement and ideology, before being outlawed and crushed by the so-called Fascists of the Nazi Party (also a Socialist ideology itself, just that it was a Right-Wing movement rather than a Left-Wing movement)

Subsequently, during the reign of Nazi totalitarianism, Vorwärts! Vorwärts! (Forward! Forward!) was the Hitler-Youth marching song designed to rally and unite the German people with national fervor from the emerging youth.

Forward, was also utilized by the Soviet’s in the early 1900’s.  Translated from its Russian Marxist-Socialist political use, the term “Vpered” was the first Bolshevik weekly newspaper, published in Geneva from Dec. 22, 1904 to May 5, 1905.

The name of the newspaper was suggested by then future Soviet leader, Vladimir Lenin.
Vpered was also a radical and extreme Marxist organization within the Russian Social Democratic Party, from 1909 – 1912. The slogan and context of Forward in political propaganda terms was also heavily touted and used in the Post WWII GDR/DDR and Soviet Union.

In more modern times, the European and North American Socialists define Forward
as “The way forward for anti-capitalism.” The caveat though, is that the U.S. government is not outwardly anti-capitalist, but they are without question, pro-corporatist. On the surface it would
seem that they are champions of free-markets, but when you dig deep enough below that surface
the evidence reveals a completely different and alarming truth.

In essence, a Corporatist platform of capitalism, is really nothing more than a form of Market-Socialism. When one considers what the government has done with tax-payer money or ‘printed’ currency, to “Bail-Out” dozens upon dozens of supposedly free-market owned companies.

The list is lengthy to print, but anyone who is able to search the internet thoroughly, can find the long list of companies and corporations the U.S. government has ‘loaned’ tax-payer money to. Although these so-called loans were nothing more than ownership stakes in said entities.  Thereby creating partially and loosely owned/controlled economies- which is one of the tenets of Market Socialism.

We will continue our look and discussion of Forward in Part II

Soaring Fuel Prices Hit Americans Hard

Guest Post:
By Nick Barile

If you’ve glanced at the big numbers on top of the gasoline pump recently, you’ve undoubtedly noticed the slow, dreadful escalation of fuel prices.  The majority of Americans are now paying close to $4.00 per gallon of gasoline, which has threatened the economic recovery and pushed many families closer to the brink. Why? Because, like it or not, our world runs on sweet crude oil.

Everything you buy, eat, or interact with is in existence because of oil. Your groceries, your school commute, your laptop- even this article that you’re reading right now- all have a relationship with oil that’s not going to end well. It’s important to understand why fuel prices are so high, and what you- and our country- should do to combat them.

Oil, natural gas, and other commodities’ prices reflect the speculation of investors based on the current environment. Almost all consumables are based on the centuries-old theory of supply and demand. If America is on the road-trip to recovery, then she’s going to have to fill the tank more than sitting idly in the depths of the Recession.

It seems that along with our own economic expansion, we have witnessed a dramatic uptick in the world’s consumption of oil. China and India have been rapidly expanding economically, and population growth has resulted in more vehicles being on the road than ever before.

The instability of the Middle East has also been the culprit for the theft of more American dollars. Revolutions of the Arab Spring have caused fear of a supply disruption, which would bring back the gas shortages of the 1970’s. Even more so, the United States’ increasingly hawkish foreign policy with Iran has led investors to become wary of yet another war fought within sight of oil wells, further causing fear of a drop in supply.

But our government isn’t doing that well in easing tensions. Our continued presence in the Middle East has led to many outbreaks of violence, stressing any political stability to be had. And the Obama Administration’s belligerence towards Iran has caused many near-panics for speculators, as Iran has retaliated with threats to stem the flow of oil out of the Middle East.

Our current policy is the equivalent of throwing water on a grease fire. It may seem the correct thing to do, but in reality, all it does is further spread the flames and result in more problems. If the United States wants to truly prevent political instability, then the government needs to dramatically re-think the interventionist foreign policy it has maintained for the past decade.

Even so, there are countless things to be done at home in order to hopefully quell gas prices’ jumpiness.  The first is a relatively obvious answer: more domestic production. Few will deny the risks of oil exploration. There have been catastrophes, no doubt, but we are on the verge of an economic one if Americans see gas prices upwards of $5 a gallon (not a far-fetched thought at all, as gas prices in Europe hover around $9 per gallon).

Although many advocate higher efficiency standards, it’s important to consider the feasibility of such requirements. The Chevrolet Volt, for instance, a poster-boy for President’s push for alternative energy, has been a spectacular marketing failure because of its price and ROI factor.

Consumers will simply not pay ridiculous sums of money for a car just to lower annual gasoline bills- that would take 27 years to recoup the investment. Even though Europe is a horrible example to follow in terms of production, they have been able to raise their efficiency by using two things: diesel fuel and small scooters/”Vespas”.

Diesel provides for much better fuel economy than its counterpart (capable of hitting near 50 MPG on the highway), and most gas-powered mopeds/scooters can achieve near 100 miles to the gallon. If America were to adapt itself to these things, gas consumption would fall dramatically than our current plans of driving 8 cylinder SUVs to work.

 

While we generally agree with Nick’s pov, we here at DataAnalytics
disagree with a few key points the author made.

Demand for gasoline the U.S. is at a 17 year low, while Europe is at a
decade low. Which more than off-sets the increases in China and India.

Also, the False Inflection points that are utilized by the traders are convenient ‘triggers’ that enable them to raise the prices without any accountability or real proof. The Iranian ‘issues’ were all media and government created, in order to allow the street to drive the prices up during that supposed ‘tense’ period.

Middle-East tensions with regard to oil supply has been something the
market has had to deal with for about 40 years, this is not something new.
But because the media and the government made so much noise about it,
it in turn gave the green-light to speculators, to panic investors and drive
up the Nymex/Cushing contract prices under false pretenses.

DataAnalytics findings reveal that Speculation accounts for approximately (+/-)28% of the price of a barrel of Brent Crude. NOT the 15% the St. Louis Fed came up with. Kevin G. Hall, of McClatchy states, “Oil and gas prices were soaring thanks again in no small part to rampant financial speculation on top of (exaggerated) fears of supply disruptions.”

Hall’s March report highlights the fact that despite rising prices at U.S. gas pumps, demand in the U.S. was so low it has “become a net exporter of gasoline, unable to consume all that it generates.”

We also believe that Europe is not a ‘horrible’ example of production, as
Europe’s GDP is not much different than the U.S.’s over the past4 years.
We also would really like to see the U.S. government and State governments seriously adapt alternative transportation methods, such as bicycles and scooters much more widely than it is. Our roads and highways are in general, not bicycle/scooter friendly at all. Especially on the east and west metro coast areas.

Consumer Inflation (Food & Fuel)

By DataAnalytics

A brief report on the latest purported inflation figures.

As if under some giant slumber, the ‘public’ was given the standard
rhetorical tripe on monthly inflation figures today from the BLS.

Amazingly, CPI-U barley rose a half a percent, in fact it ‘printed’ at
0.4%! Now considering more than half the population are most likely
‘asleep at the wheel’ this report deserves a double-take, even from the
most inept, reality-TV, stupor-induced American.

If you buy groceries and drive a vehicle, you must realize
(at least we hope so) that it is costing you much, much more to
feed you and your family and fill up the old gas tank.

How much more? Well for gasoline, the national average per gallon
is now at $3.83, up from $3.54 a year ago. That’s an 8.1% Rise.
How about from last month? Prices from February are up a hefty 12%.
But yet, the BLS proclaims that the ‘official’ measure of inflation has
only risen 0.4%. How can that be? Simple, one word. Deception.

gas price chart

How about food prices? Well let’s take a closer look at the cost of food
commodities from January 2012 back to January 2011. Meat, Poultry,
Fish and eggs are up on a weighted basis of 7.21% from a year ago.
Dairy and related dairy (cheeses, yogurts, etc) have increased 9% since
last year, while Cereal and Bakery products are up 5.25% from January ’11.

cereal meat eggs

Can’t live without that morning cup of home brewed Coffee? (me neither)
Well, roasted coffee prices have soared a whopping 16.85% from January 2011.
The only ‘good’ news, is that Fruits and Vegetables have actually
dropped about a half a percent, 06% to be exact.

coffee & veg

So while the government and B-B-B- Benny and Fed tout virtually no
to little inflation, there are some of us, who understand that this simply
is NOT true. The government is playing a game, a dangerous game at that.
Manipulating, doctoring and fabricating numbers and figures in order to
‘show’ that Central Bank intervention is working. (which we know is a failure)

The BLS has truly become a Ministry of Propaganda for the government.
No longer an agency of credibility and non-partisan reporting. Engaged
in a campaign of utter and sheer deceit on jobs data and inflation.
Making a mockery of the Statistical arm of academics and public trust.

Crony Capitalism or Corporatism by any other name…

Via Bill Moyers

Moyers & Company explores the tight connection between Wall Street
and the White House with David Stockman, former budget director
for President Reagan.

Stockman speaks candidly with Moyers about how money dominates
politics, distorting free markets and endangering democracy.
“As a result,” Stockman says, “we have neither capitalism nor democracy.
We have crony capitalism.” Or Corporatism.

 

The Engineered Market and the Doctored Unemployment Rate

Friday, March 2nd, 2012

Short interview with Mark Leibovit of VRGoldletter.com, who speaks with
NBR’s Tom Hudson about the Fed’s manipulations, the engineered stock
market and the Doctored Unemployment Rate.

Video segment is from NBR with Tom Hudson. Full Transcript.

 

 

” My sense is not as optimistic. I don’t believe the figures
that we’ve been getting from the government.”

“There’s a lot of talk about the employment numbers, we know those
have been doctored up…”

Ron Paul Grills Bernanke at the Financial Services Hearing

Financial Services Hearing Highlights February 29, 2012

Congressman Ron Paul ‘asks’ Fed Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke a series
of rapid questions about Fiat Currency, Silver and Inflation.

Quote of the highlight is;
…”that’s why they (the American people) Lose trust in government.”
Referring to the BS Inflation rate of 2%-3%. This portion of the clip is priceless.

 

A Planned Economy for the 1%

From  TheRealNews on Feb 25, 2012

Michael Hudson: All economies have a certain amount of planning,
the question is, for whom?

 

Household Inflation & Commodity Prices

By DataAnalytics

So, how far is your dollar stretching these days? We know, not very far.
It seems that almost everything costs more today than it did last year at
this time. Well, in fact almost everything does cost more. But wait, the
BLS states that consumer inflation has increased only 3.4%. Really?

Well, you can forget the mostly impractical CPI-U Index published by
the government. What matters abundantly and has a significant
impact to the average consumer is Household Inflation.

Those household ‘commodities’ are the everyday items we all use and mostly
need with a few basic ‘wants’ in the mix as well. Such as; Food, Fuel, Apparel,
household Appliances and Electronics.

According to the “Basket of Goods” utilized in the governments CPI-U index,
inflation is approximately, +3.4% (NSA). The simple fact is that this ‘measure’ of
inflation is not relevant or indicative of real-world household/consumer price inflation.

The fact is that aggregate household-commodity inflation on nominal prices
from one year ago in October- (y-o-y comparative analysis ) for these items-
(Food, Fuel, Apparel, Appliances and Electronics) has risen +35.30%. (cumulative)
(For a breakdown of commodities and price-levels, see the graphs below)

What this really means is that the purchasing power of the average U.S. consumer
has greatly decreased, approximately 35% for these basic staples from 2010.

So what exactly has been the causation of the rapid acceleration in food, fuel,
clothing and electronics then? It”s certainly not Demand-Pull inflation. ‘Demand’
for most household commodities and gasoline has been less than last year and
personal consumption has dropped a whopping 24% from Q2 to Q3.

Could a portion of commodity inflation be tied to a Cost-Push? Perhaps,
but it would be a minor amount of the overall aggregate price rises.

Well on the food side, we know that the prices of cornmeal, sugar, rice and wheat
have been driven up by a variety of factors- first, is the slight drop off in crop
yields and second, is speculation as well as the effects of monetary supply
and wage stagnation.

inflation cereal rice pasta meat eggs

Total Rise of Cereal, Rice, Pasta, Cornmeal, Meat, Poultry, Fish, Eggs: 20.82%

inflation milk fruits bread

Total Rise of Milk, Fruits, Vegetables, Bread: 24.39%
(Total Aggregate Rise of Staple Food Commodities: 22.60%)

Examining Apparel, Appliances and Electronics, specifically, home video
and audio, we see only a moderate increase in price levels from Oct. 2010.

tv clothes appls

Total Rise of Apparel, Appliances and Electronics: 5.54%

On the fuel side, it is down to OPEC and to some extent, futures trading. We know that
OPEC will no longer sell crude for less than $90-$95 per barrel for any length of time.
This ‘built-in’ price floor sets the stage for the loosely monitored, but undeniable
‘fixed-pricing’ basis on crude. Mix in speculative trading and the market is able to
some extent, manipulate the cost per barrel.

avg gas prices

Total Rise of Regular Gasoline Per Gallon Nationally: 7.15%

Given the fragile state of the U.S. economy and the unprecedented
unemployment/underemployment rate of 22%-23%, how much more
price inflation can the average household absorb?

An ideal economy retains price-stability, which at the moment we have
none of. So what does our inflation analysis reveal? Well, the obvious is that
most household commodities are costing over 35% more than they did in 2010.

Secondly, price-inflation seems to be somewhat fragmented and without argument,
some of these price rises are transitory, with a historic trend of being somewhat
predictable. But that has not been the case as of late.

Yes, most household food commodities have been shifting downward since
the beginning of 2011, with retail gasoline following suit, while the rise in rents are
averaging only about 5% nationally. On the other side of the coin, housing asset
prices have declined and continue to fall, with auto prices remaining fairly stable.

So as we close out 2011 the U.S. economy remains in a state of flux with most
tangible assets deflating, while commodities are still above 2010 price levels and
could easily rise again. The bigger question looming is what will this ‘push-pull’ yield
going into 2012? Much of it depends on the broader macro-picture, the all important
labor market, the presidential election and the Eurozone crisis will all play a role in the
macro economic picture.

The bottom line is that the variables involved, both domestically and abroad are
unknown in terms of predictability and performance. The U.S. as well as Europe
and parts of Asia could remain in this unstable economic environment for a couple
of more years or perhaps even longer. But here at home, the dollar can only be
stretched so far, before it eventually breaks.

 

For analysis purposes the following methods were implemented
*price averages reflect the retail mean.
*each commodity group was weighted.
*food commodities combined. (previous correction)
*apparel, appliances, electronics combined
Partial data derived from IndexMundi, IBD and consumer surveys

Eurozone Crisis – Michael Lewis’ ‘Boomerang’

PBS NewsHour interview clip with Michael Lewis.

‘Money Thrown Out in Hope, Coming Back in Anger’

The Long-Term Unemployed – Demise of the Middle-Class

By DataAnalytics

While Congress and the most disappointing administration in decades praised their own
efforts and actions in seemingly lowering the U3 unemployment rate last Friday,
from a supposed 9% to a reported 8.6%, they ignored many negative glaring facts.

Indeed, the Private Sector added 120k net jobs, (revised down to 100k) but
-315 thousand workers gave up searching for jobs altogether, which is why the U3 rate dropped.
The U.S. is averaging approximately -350k first-time unemployment claims per week.
While only averaging about 125k jobs added per month. It takes at least 100k per month
just to keep the rate steady and a minimum of 200k per month to lower the UE rate.

Now on to the more disturbing and eye-opening statistics-
Long-Term Unemployment. The mean (or the average for those not familiar)
duration of unemployment in November 2010 was 34 weeks.
The mean duration of unemployment in November 2011 WAS a whopping 41 weeks.
A very sharp and alarming  increase of +7.1%.

Historically, the delta between the U3 and U6 rates has been approximately 3.9%. The spread has been up over 5% now. Another alarming data point is that 43% of all jobless persons are now the Long-Term unemployed. The U.S. is closing in on nearly half of the unemployed being out of work for a minimum of 27 weeks all the way up to 260 weeks.

Up until mid-year, the duration had been hovering in the 30 to 35 week range,
but has now made a significant jump since late 2010. What does that data reveal?
For one thing, unemployment is not easing or subsiding at all. In fact, it is worsening.

The BLS is simply deceiving the American public. The labor market is in
serious trouble and no one is tackling the problem head on. A lot of rhetoric and finger-pointing
from politicians, but no action. As the duration of the long-term unemployed keeps climbing,
so does the desperation and the continuing erosion of the middle-class.

Another interesting point to note is that the BLS changed the long-term
metric from 24 months or 100 weeks to 60 months or 260 weeks.

The take away here is that more and more workers are going without a job
for longer and longer periods of time. The negative results will be felt as purchasing power is reduced further and further. And, as household/consumer inflation keeps rising, the value of a dollar will keep sinking.

Our prediction is for a continuation of a depressed economy, more foreclosures
and higher commodity prices well into 2012. As it is, foodbanks and food pantry’s
are stretched to their limits. There are approximately 43 million people receiving food
stamps and 16 Million children in America living in poverty. Very sad and shameful indeed for
one of the most wealthiest nations in the free-world.