U3 rate jumps back up to 9%
Gallup’s latest report suggests the BLS will “likely report on the first
Friday of March that its seasonally adjusted unemployment
rate increased in February.”
Gallup’s mid-month unemployment rate analysis is a preliminary
estimate of the BLS government report. Data now suggests that the
Bureau of Labor Statistics will likely report on March 2nd that its
“Seasonally Adjusted” U3 unemployment rate will indeed actually
INCREASE in February.
Meanwhile, the U6 rate (underemployment/unemployment) has also
spiked up to 19%, from the purported S.A. 15.7% rate. The take away
here is that the labor market is worsening as we have suggested.
The non-seasonally adjusted data can be a more effective gauge of
the labor markets overall health. That, and the “Mean Duration” of
unemployment, which is near 41 weeks, accompanied by the all
alarming statistic of 43% of those who are unemployed are in that
Long-Term Unemployment category.
Labor Force Participation Rate is the key to deciphering and analyzing
the realistic unemployment rates. From approximately 2000 to 2009,
the LFPR had been about 67% +/-. But in the past 2+ years the LFPR
has been falling and now stands at approximately 64%+/-.
The reality is that the true total underemployment/unemployment
rate could be as high as 36%. Though it is difficult to pin down exact
numbers without having access to payroll income tax data.
But it is safe to state, that the total unemployment rate is roughly
between 25% and 36%. That is One Quarter to One Third of ALL
available would-be workers out of full-time work or out of work all together.
What this latest batch of data
suggests, proves, is that the false claims
and bell-ringing of an economic recovery are worthless. The “Hopium”
that is being passed around in the “progressive pipe” has burned a hole
in the brains of those who are buying-in to the massive propaganda
war being waged by the government and the corporate owned media.
The economy is tanking day by day. All of the meaningful economic
indicators are either flat or negative. We have gone over them time and
time again in the last year, but it doesn’t seem to sink in.
Real Retail Sales were 0.0% in December. Preliminary figures
for January were 0.4%, which will be revised downward again.
Most big name retailers are in serious trouble.
Profit margins in 2011 were down for almost every major retailer.
Many are now in bankruptcy, due to the massive price slashing
efforts in order to gain the foot traffic in the last quarter of 2011.
Auto sales were misleading as well, as the bulk of orders were not
for customers, but rather dealership inventories.
Crude oil and gasoline are spiraling out of control and have seen
double-digit percentage increases over last year at this time. These
rising fuel commodities show no signs of slowing down or reducing
which is further jeopardizing the economy.
Food prices are up and slightly rising as well and are expected to
remain at elevated levels in 2012. Another cold harsh reality is that
Food & Fuel inflation is up approximately 30%+/- from a year ago.
Housing market remains depressed with median prices still falling,
due in part to the huge inventory of distressed properties. With more
foreclosures due to hit the market all throughout 2012, prices will
continue to slide. This will negatively affect existing homes and
mortgage holders who are already underwater.
Debt, both personal and corporate were up in 2011 and will not
abate anytime soon.
GDP for Q4 2011, was 2.8%. Now, strip out the stockpiled inventories
which accounted for 1.9%, then remove autos, 0.6% and ta-da!
Q4 GDP was a Whopping 0.3%! Zero point three of a percent.
There you have it, 5 major indicators of economic activity are flat to
negative and are nowhere near improving because of one simple word:
Jobs. The labor market is the crux of our economic engine, period.
It’s not the stock market or any other insignificant indicator the media
and shill economists tout. Without sufficient labor levels and wages, the
all important Purchasing Power is diminished or completely eliminated.
Which tends to halt almost all economic activity (except necessities)
in our +/-67 percent “consumption-driven” economy.
(is the light bulb coming on yet?)